India’s Economy: Growth Revisions, Sector Shifts, & Global Tensions

In a rapidly evolving global landscape, India’s economy is entering a phase of recalibration and strategic adjustment. Over the past week, a slew of pivotal developments—from downward revisions in growth forecasts to regulatory overhauls and sector-specific shifts—have shaped the economic narrative. As global trade tensions rise and domestic priorities sharpen, India continues to navigate this fluid environment with resilience, innovation, and structural realignment. Here's your weekly TICE Business and Economy Review to keep you ahead of the curve and help you make informed decisions as the new week begins.

Revised Growth 

OutlookIndia’s economic outlook saw a recalibration this week. Moody’s Ratings trimmed its 2025 GDP forecast to 5.5–6.5%, a dip from the earlier 6.6% estimate. The agency attributed the downward revision to “unpredictable” US tariffs, which may hinder business planning, dampen investments, and raise global recession risks.

Financial Oversight Tightens, UPI Reliability Under Focus

The Reserve Bank of India widened its audit scope to include the service providers of NBFCs, underlining the need for stricter KYC compliance, data security, and transparency in fintech lending. Meanwhile, the RBI and NPCI are working on a more robust monitoring mechanism for UPI transaction status APIs to counter recent outages.

Insurance Adoption Lag & MSME Support

A Policybazaar survey revealed that high premiums and lack of funds remain major hurdles in health and term insurance adoption, despite increased awareness. On the MSME front, United India Insurance partnered with SIDBI to launch customized general insurance products, aiming to boost penetration in this underserved segment.

Industrial Sector: Mixed Signals

Crisil projected domestic commercial vehicle volumes could touch 1 million units in FY25, driven by infrastructure momentum, replacement demand, and policy support. India's sustainable tourism market is forecasted to reach $216 million in a decade, while an above-normal monsoon, as predicted by IMD, has brightened outlooks for FMCG companies.

Meanwhile, in the tech-driven space, edtech firms are witnessing a post-pandemic rebound in enrolments. India ranked second globally in D2C funding in 2024, though funding volumes declined. Smartphone demand may remain tepid in FY26, partly due to tariffs impacting global trade. In contrast, ICRA expects an 8–10% growth in the construction sector, backed by strong order books.

Agriculture Sees Investment, Policy Momentum

Agrifoodtech startups saw a threefold investment jump in 2024. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan highlighted India-Brazil collaboration for global food security. The SEA urged the lifting of the ban on de-oiled rice bran exports, while the cotton panel recommended removing the 11% import duty. Sugar production dipped as mills shut early, and SOPA requested delays in soybean stock sales to stabilize prices. Summer showers in Kerala raised hopes for a good cardamom yield.

Infrastructure: Highs and Lows

Housing sales dropped 19% in eight major cities amid high prices, and highway construction slowed in FY25. Indian Railways piloted onboard ATMs for better passenger service, and Maharashtra announced water taxi routes in Mumbai to ease urban congestion.

Energy Sector Realigns Amid Tariff Pressures

India may double energy purchases from the US to mitigate tariff threats. CGD firms reported reduced allocation of APM gas, now replaced by costlier variants. CERC began work on generic tariffs for small hydro projects, while India considers gas-based power for data centers.

State-Level Growth Moves

Telangana tested new rice export markets with a successful pilot to the Philippines. Delhi extended its EV policy, retained power subsidies, and raised minimum wages. Haryana unveiled a major industrial cluster near Hisar airport.

Trade, Policy & Global Pressures

India’s trade deficit with China neared $100 billion in FY25, prompting concerns over dumping. Tariff negotiations are underway, including talks of removing import duties on US ethane and LPG. India is also exploring value-addition norms for auto exports to block Chinese rerouting. The WTO warned that US tariffs have worsened the global trade outlook for 2025. To support exporters, the Indian government is planning an e-commerce export credit card.

Markets & Macro Trends

Inflation eased, with retail inflation in March at a five-year low and wholesale inflation also declining. Yet, March saw a widening trade deficit. Crisil projects 12–13% bank credit growth in FY26. The RBI chose not to activate the countercyclical capital buffer, while Fitch warned that draft gold loan norms may increase complexity. The RBI also mandated 8% interest for delays in central pension payments. Foreign loan inflows crossed $50 billion in FY25 (till February), while festive season borrowing dipped due to cautious lending. India also enabled bad loan securitisation to boost the junk debt market.

Consumer Trends & Industry Dynamics

Passenger vehicle sales grew modestly in FY25, led by utility vehicles. Capital goods firms expect moderate profit growth in Q4FY25. US tariffs may impact chip equipment makers. Enterprises are projected to ramp up AI spending significantly. The IT sector is seeing deferred wage hikes and low hiring, signaling structural shifts. ONDC reported strong March transaction growth, and quick commerce is prompting supermarkets in malls to downsize. Small towns are driving growth in online pet care, while India’s GCC market continues expanding. An AMEX report found that Indian travelers are increasingly prioritizing holistic international travel experiences.

This week’s economic pulse revealed more than just shifting forecasts—it showcased India’s capacity to adapt in the face of global uncertainties. From regulatory recalibrations to evolving consumer behaviour and sectoral pivots, the momentum reflects a nation in strategic transition. As challenges persist and opportunities emerge, staying informed remains essential. TICE Business & Economy Review will continue to track the trends that matter—helping you make sense of the numbers, the narratives, and the next big moves.