Tariffs, Trade Deals & the Millet Gold Rush for Indian Startups

Somewhere between the sun-scorched fields of Karnataka and the polished supermarket shelves of California lies a billion-dollar betrayal. India grows 41% of the world’s millets, yet we take home less than 5% of the branded profits. The same story repeats with our milk, spices, pulses — even basmati rice. We farm. They package. They profit. And now, with new trade winds blowing from Europe, the UK, and Australia, the question is no longer can India claim its share — it’s whether we’ll move fast enough before someone else bags the millet gold. 

The FMCG Irony: Bharat Feeds the World, But Doesn’t Sell to It

Indian farms power global food security. But walk through grocery aisles in Toronto or Tokyo, and you’ll find quinoa snacks from Peru, turmeric lattes from California, and olive oil from Spain — not Chennai.

India supplies the ingredients. Others shape the narrative — and pocket the margins.

According to the Economic Survey and Invest India:

• India ranks #1 in milk and spice production
• We’re among the top five producers of grains, vegetables, and fruits
• Yet our share in the global packaged food and beverage market remains under 2%, despite exporting over $43 billion worth of F&B products annually

Meanwhile, countries like the Netherlands and Belgium — with modest agricultural output — rake in billions through value-added processed food exports. They’ve mastered branding, logistics, and global compliance. We haven’t.

“India feeds the world, but still stands outside the dining table of global profits.”

The Bottleneck Isn’t the Farm — It’s the Finish Line

India lacks post-harvest value addition — branding, certification, packaging, marketing, retail partnerships, and compliance with global standards. Take turmeric. We sell it by the kilo. The West sells it by the capsule, bundled with wellness narratives and celebrity endorsements — at a 500% markup. Or basmati rice. We grow it, but they brand it, often using non-Indian sounding names to appeal to global consumers.

India has over 50,000 food processing units. Yet fewer than 10 enjoy global brand recall. Most are stuck in the low-margin, high-volume trap, exporting raw goods with little say in their final shelf value.

Even in millets — where India led the UN’s International Year of Millets in 2023 — global giants like Kellogg’s and General Mills beat us to Western shelves. Indian startups, by contrast, are still struggling with fragmented branding and limited access to global retail networks.

Trump’s Tariff Shock: Crisis or Catalyst?

On August 6, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, citing India’s continued oil trade with Russia. That brought the total tariff burden to 50% — the highest on any U.S. trading partner.

“No, not until we get it resolved,” Trump said, ruling out further trade talks.

India pushed back. Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the move “unilateral and shortsighted,” declaring that India “will never compromise on the interests of farmers, fishermen, and dairy farmers.” The Ministry of External Affairs condemned the tariffs as “unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable,” reaffirming that India’s energy imports are driven by market needs — not geopolitical alignment.

Behind closed doors, Indian negotiators sought exemptions for key sectors like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and processed foods. But Washington held firm.

The shock rippled across India’s export ecosystem. From Surat’s diamond traders to Punjab’s basmati shippers, margins shrank overnight. Walmart and Amazon reportedly paused procurement. Moody’s flagged risks to India’s manufacturing targets and investor confidence.

Yet amid the disruption, a door quietly opened — toward Europe, Australia, and the UK, where India’s trade diplomacy was gaining traction.

Global Trade Winds: Europe, UK, Australia

As the U.S. turns inward, India is pivoting outward.

• The India–EU FTA talks have accelerated, with agri-exports and food processing at the core.
• The India–Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (ECTA) already offers reduced tariffs on processed food and beverage exports.
• The real breakthrough came in July 2025, when India and the UK signed a Free Trade Agreement granting zero-duty access for 99% of Indian agri and processed food products — including wellness items, organic foods, and traditional ingredients.

India now enjoys tariff headroom. But without brand muscle and compliance infrastructure, these trade wins may not translate into shelf wins.

Picture millet bars from Jaipur stacked beside protein bars in Munich. Ayurvedic teas from Coimbatore sharing shelf space with chamomile blends in Paris. Organic ghee and A2 milk powders from Gujarat displayed in premium UK supermarkets as high-value health foods.

India doesn’t just need farm-to-fork. It needs farm-to-Fortnum & Mason.

What’s Missing: The Startup–FMCG Convergence

India’s startup ecosystem transformed fintech, logistics, and SaaS. But in food and FMCG, the unicorn list remains painfully short — Zomato, Swiggy, Licious, and a handful of D2C brands like Mamaearth and Paper Boat.

This is where DPIIT and Startup India must pivot:

• Incentivize FMCG branding startups with global ambitions
• Launch export-focused incubators for agriculture, food, and wellness brands
• Simplify labeling, certification, and IP protection for Indian-origin products
• Empower India Brand Equity Foundation (IBEF) to reposition India as a global source of wellness foods and sustainable agri brands

The Blind Spot Won’t Fix Itself

India doesn’t have a production problem. It has a positioning problem. We’ve built the highways, cold chains, and logistics parks. But infrastructure without identity only takes us halfway. We must sell what we grow — not just grow what we eat. Because in the global marketplace…Value travels with the brand, not the commodity. And if we don’t own our shelves, someone else will.

The government’s investments in PM-GatiShakti, logistics parks, and cold chains are welcome. But infrastructure without identity takes us only halfway. India must learn to sell what it grows — not just grow what it eats. Because in the global marketplace, value travels with the brand, not the commodity. And unless we fix this millet-to-margin disconnect, the next big Indian food success story might still carry a foreign label.